The Washington, D.C. newspaper Politico recently looked at how the politics of cap-and-trade and other coal-hostile efforts are shifting the political terrain in coal country.
Republicans believe there are three words so powerful that they might reshape the political order in an economically beleaguered corner of the country: War on coal.
With Democrats holding total control of the federal government and a cap-and-trade bill still looming, the GOP is fanning widespread coal country fears that the national Democratic Party is hostile to the coal mining industry, if not outright committed to its demise.
Those efforts are putting a group of coal state Democrats at risk as Republicans leverage the tremendous economic anxieties surrounding the future of an industry that is a vital part of their states’ economies.
In West Virginia and Kentucky, longtime Democratic House incumbents with solid records on the issue are taking heavy flak. Across the border in Virginia, a veteran Democrat could face his most serious challenge yet in part because of his support of cap and trade. Two junior lawmakers from Ohio are facing threats for the same reason.
The issue may loom largest in West Virginia, where coal mining is an integral part of the culture and makes up a full quarter of the state’s revenues.
Politico’s story follows up on recent analysis by Dave Wasserman, who looked at the electoral changes in coal country since 1992. Wasserman examined Buchanan County, Virginia, the largest coal producer in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
The UMWA, the de facto regional Democratic machine, helped Bill Clinton take 63 percent of Buchanan’s vote in the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections, even though he didn’t win the state either time. … In 2008, however, Barack Obama lost Buchanan to Republican John McCain, 47 percent to 52 percent, while carrying the state with 53 percent of the vote. [The article doesn't mention Al Gore, but he got 58 percent in Buchanan County in 2000.]
This dropoff in the Democratic vote isn’t just in national elections, but at the state and local level.
In the 2005 battle for attorney general of Virginia, rural-rooted Democrat Creigh Deeds beat Republican Bob McDonnell 61 percent to 39 percent in Buchanan. When the two faced off in the 2009 gubernatorial contest, Deeds’s share of the Buchanan vote plummeted 24 points while falling just 9 points statewide. [McDonnell won Buchanan 63-37 in 2009]
Republicans in coal country have a theory for this decline:
“It was all cap-and-trade,” says Buchanan’s GOP chairman, Jerry Lester, referring to congressional Democrats’ energy bill, which is intended to reduce the nation’s greenhouse-gas emissions. “I’ve never seen a depth of anger like this. People feel like stuff has been forced down their throat.”
And the story concludes with a warning:
If the bottom is indeed falling out for Democrats in Appalachian districts, at least several unsuspecting officeholders are likely to find an early lump of coal in their stockings this year.